North Korea’s Tantrum Lesson

While Pakistan and Afghanistan vie to become President Obama’s first major foreign policy headache, North Korea looks like they want to crash the party.

North Korea is moving forward with nuclear tests and missile tests despite receiving several stern warnings from the United States, other countries and the U.N.

“Stern warnings” always remind me of a distracted parent asking their child who is having a temper tantrum to please be quiet. The warnings, however stern, rarely have any effect.

Has any country ever stopped moving forward on a nuclear weapons program because of a stern warning? North Korea was supposed to have dismantled their nuclear program already, what makes anyone think a stern warning would halt their current progress?

Many international pundits are chiming in on this issue and commenting that this has more to do with internal North Korean affairs than anything else. Their current leader, Kim Jong Ill is said to be very sick and some believe that as a last desperate act, he’s trying to show how strong he is by ticking off the free world.

It would be nice to be able to just ignore this tantrum like you would for any 3 year old that throws himself on the floor and screams. But you can’t ignore a 3 year old with a nuclear arsenal.

This situation for President Obama and the U.N. is tricky, but it’s going to be far more than just a difficult exercise in foreign politics. This will also serve as an important lesson to every other country aspiring to join the nuclear club on what happens when you throw a fit with your nuclear prowess.

If Obama goes forward with mere stern warnings and resolutions that promise even more stern warnings, they will not dissuade Iran from employing the very same strategy. I’m not advocating going to war with North Korea, but we need to realize that Iran will use this as a script on how to handle its own nuclear program.

In the past, we have simply bought off the North Korean government. We threaten and warn, and in the end we buy back the program. We send aid, they promise to end their nuclear program, their leaders look like they are all powerful in the face of international pressure and their people are able to eat for another few months. But, apparently what we buy is merely a short term nuclear disarmament.

We’re teaching a basic economic formula. Do whatever it takes to create a nuclear program. Threaten to use said program on a neighbor you hate. Endure countless, but meaningless warnings to stop and when you refuse to stop, instead of engaging your huge ally in a messy conflict, the United States will pay you to destroy a cooling tower.

Wait 18 months and repeat.

Whatever strategy President Obama and the rest of the international community use to handle this situation; they should keep the script handy. It wouldn’t surprise me if this engagement returns in the fall at a theatre near you called, North Korea II: Iran’s Turn.